For home-buyers, the fall in Toronto is arriving with a market that looks cheaper than a year ago but less loose than it was earlier in the year.

If you are interested in buying within the next few months, it’s important to consider what makes the fall season unique in real estate.

The practical question for buyers heading into September, October, and November is therefore not simply whether prices will fall further. It is how to take advantage of today’s lower prices without assuming that more inventory will necessarily appear later in the season.

Don’t Assume Every Fall Market Behaves the Same Way

Recent history is a good reminder that “the fall market” is not one predictable event.

In September 2024, the GTA recorded 4,996 sales, up 8.5 per cent from September 2023, while new listings climbed 10.5 per cent. The average price was $1,107,291, down 1 per cent year over year. October brought a much larger jump in activity, with 6,658 sales, 44.4 per cent more than October 2023. November recorded 5,875 sales, up 40.1 per cent from November 2023.

The following few years were very different.

September 2025 produced 5,592 sales, up 8.5 per cent from September 2024, but October sales were 9.5 per cent below October 2024 and November sales were 15.8 per cent lower than November 2024. Average prices moved from $1,059,377 in September to $1,054,372 in October and $1,039,458 in November.

The lesson is not that one fall month is automatically better for buyers. September, October and November can behave very differently with changes in rates, employment, consumer confidence and listings. Waiting solely for a seasonal price drop is a bet on timing rather than on the property itself.

Buying for the first time? You’ll find lots of great advice in these other blog posts.

Mortgage Rates Are Better, but Affordability Still Comes Down to the Payment

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25 per cent on September 2, 2026, where it has remained since the beginning of the year. That is a major change from the 5 per cent policy rate reached in 2023 and has helped lower borrowing costs compared with the peak-rate period.

The distinction between the Bank’s policy rate and a mortgage rate is important. The Bank of Canada does not set the mortgage rate a buyer receives. Its policy decisions have a direct influence on prime and variable-rate borrowing, while longer-term fixed mortgage rates are also affected by bond-market yields and other funding conditions.

For a fall buyer, the practical question is whether the payment works at the rate available today and under the lender’s qualification rules.

The current minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages is the greater of the contract rate plus two percentage points or 5.25 per cent. Borrowing capacity should be established before the search becomes emotional, and the maximum pre-approval should not automatically become the household’s target.

Mortgage rules have also changed. The federal insured-mortgage price cap was raised to $1.5 million in December 2024, and 30-year insured amortizations were expanded to all first-time homebuyers and all buyers of new builds.

A longer amortization can lower the monthly payment, but it also extends the period over which interest is paid.

Toronto buyers also need to budget for transaction costs beyond the down payment. Eligible first-time buyers can receive up to $4,000 through Ontario’s land transfer tax refund and up to $4,475 through Toronto’s municipal land transfer tax first-time buyer rebate. That represents as much as $8,475 in potential relief for a qualifying buyer.

Condo Buyers and Freehold Buyers Are Not Shopping the Same Market

The GTA’s aggregate number can hide one of the most important distinctions in Toronto’s 2026 market: condominium apartments have been softer than freehold housing.

In August, the average GTA condominium apartment sold for about $617,593, down 3.6 per cent from a year earlier. Across the City of Toronto, the average condo apartment price was about $651,648 on 885 sales. Condo inventory also remained higher than freehold inventory, with roughly 5.7 months of supply for condos compared with 4.4 months for freehold homes.

That creates different negotiating environments. A condo buyer can spend more time comparing buildings, units and recent sales, particularly where several similar suites are listed in the same area.

The details of the building matter as much as the unit itself: maintenance fees, reserve fund health, recent or planned special assessments, insurance costs, property taxes, building repairs and the financial position of the condominium corporation all affect what the home actually costs to own.

Thinking about buying a Condo in Toronto? Check out these blogs for more advice!

Ready to Put Toronto’s Fall Market Data to Work?

Market statistics can tell you what is happening across Toronto, but buying the right home requires a closer look at the neighbourhood, property and recent comparable sales.

The team at Adrian + Andrea brings more than 18 years of real estate experience and deep local knowledge of South Etobicoke, helping buyers understand what a property is really worth and when it makes sense to act. Connect with Adrian + Andrea to start your search.

Looking to buy? We can help! Contact us directly at (416) 319-6893 or email info@adrianandrea.com.